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Figure 2.6: Compounding error, drawn

Compounding error, drawn.
Figure 2.6 Compounding error, drawn. Whole-run success is per-step reliability raised to the number of chained steps, so it decays exponentially: 95% per step is about 36% across twenty steps, and 92% per step is about 8% across thirty (the accented points). An excellent per-step number becomes a coin you would never bet on; exponentials do not negotiate.